by Gavin M.
The forex, bond and futures markets are cautious. The stock market? HECK NO. They just rallied and eliminated the losses over the last week or so. Why? HOPE. Hope that something will actually be right. Historically, the bond market has always been smarter than the stock market. I will always trust the bond market before the stock market. The stock market is full of ignorant people.
I'm not angry at the rally - however I'm also not a robot where I can just reset my brain from Sell mode to buy mode in a blink of an eye. I am calling Washington's bluff but we'll see what happens. Sometimes, it's really better to just not trade when your trading theses need to be reset. Sometimes when your gut tells you something's wrong, it's better to just lay off on things for awhile.
If you have been consistently buying the dip, then congrats to you. When headlines swing the markets 10-20 points within day with no clear trends, it's usually a red flag for us traders to just be safe and let things settle. Your risk premium rises and it's not worth it to gamble.
In any case, who truly knows when or what will happen. Judging from Obama's statements, he did say he will not negotiate until the republicans reopen the government. But, we all know politicians are known to renege anything they say. So going forward, who really knows. In the end, just BTFD.
Traders from Equity Sense will be writing on this blog on positions and other market-related things.