by Gavin M.
Blackberry's got more rumors than a Russian prostitute's got STDs. Seriously, there's no nice way of saying it. How many times have we all heard the takeover rumors in the last 8 years? Those of you just starting to trade you will undoubtedly not remember the countless rumors that have swirled around for Blackberry. Here are some of the notable and of course the ridiculous ones:
3. Microsoft - used more times than the hottest chick on the block
5. FairFax - something about taking it private?
I'm sure there are many honorable mentions out there spanning from Siemens to Sony to whatever the idiots out there can think of. The truth is that there is a group of jerks out there hellbent on pumping this stock for their own benefit. The rumor mill club on wall street is as annoying as an itch on your back. You will never be able to find them but I hope someday, someone will find these jerks and give them a good b*tchslapping.
But let's go to the more important point here. How many times has this stock given the poor value investors an exit???? Except for the people who bought this stock below $9, most of the investors out there are deeply underwater. Yet, it is funny that most investors still fall into this trap. They are convinced that it is a nice takeover play. They are convinced that it is a nice recovery play. They are convinced all sorts of things.
The one good trait that makes us great as human beings - optimistic, is also our own downfall in investing. You cannot use HOPE in investments. I'm sure a lot of people will argue with me on that. Of course with the central banks pumping unprecedented liquidity, the investors in the last 7 years feel like they're never wrong. But that's not my point here.
Out of thousands of good stocks out there, why do people still fall for the BlackBerry trap? Is it the valuation? Is it the hope that it will someday return to $100 or $148 at the peak of its time? I have been chastised, hated and insulted by a ton of people both online and in the public about my views of BlackBerry. But here I am, 5 years later, and has anything changed? BlackBerry has gotten cheaper. Its products no longer appeal to the public. True, businesses still like them and it's also true that their cash base is strong. It is also true that they have a whole host of patents apparently worth billions. Did you all also remember the NORTEL argument back in the day about its treasure trove of patents? Who won in the end? Certainly not investors.
The best part about today's rumor is that MSFT offered $16 for BBRY. 4 years ago, MSFT offered to buy them at $26 and of course, the idiot CEO and board vehemently rejected the offer. Call it pride, call it stupidity or call it overconfidence but that was their last great chance at selling the company.
I do not know if any more rumors are true in the future. I frankly do not care. But since 2009, I have shorted every rumor, faded every stupid pump on BBRY and have made money. I sit currently at 100% accuracy at fading rumors on BBRY. So I will not stop until I am proven wrong. Besides, I have made over $500,000 shorting BBRY rumors since 2009. So If I lose a few thousand dollars on the one rumor that turns out to be true, I still have a pretty good track record.
So those of you who are in BlackBerry, some serious advice, take this chance to get out. Save some money and buy Apple or something good. Don't be an idiot, don't join the stupid group of BlackBerry investors trapped in their pit of desperation and hope.
Traders from Equity Sense will be writing on this blog on positions and other market-related things.