by Gavin M.
In this first edition of my stocks that make you go WTF, we have three that are still at lofty levels yet no deals have materialized. Why are they still up? Because, fundurrmentals. PRGO-MYL-TEVA's circle jerk continues to rage on, leaving investors hoping to the Lord Bernanke that this deal will eventually come into fruition. There is our favorite, ALTR. The company that is doing what BBRY is doing in 2011 - overpricing itself. INTC gives a good price and yet they think it's not enough and that they should raise it some more. Why not right? Would you pay $300,000 for a used Lamborghini? I think not. But while the investors of ALTR keep hoping against hope, the stock continues to hover around post-announcement highs because IT CAN! It is amazing. For those of you with balls of steel, short this. I personally think this deal won't happen but I don't have the patience to wait for them to finally wake the heck up. Lastly, Avon Products. Yes, those products that your ex gf, gf, ex wife, wife or whatever used to put on herself or sell to her friends. A fabricated filing caused the stock to pop only to find out later that it was fake. The FBI is currently investigated. What is remarkable is that this stock is still above its lows even when Avon specifically came out with a press release saying there are no DEALS. I present to you, your efficient, fair and honest markets.
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by Gavin M.
Blackberry's got more rumors than a Russian prostitute's got STDs. Seriously, there's no nice way of saying it. How many times have we all heard the takeover rumors in the last 8 years? Those of you just starting to trade you will undoubtedly not remember the countless rumors that have swirled around for Blackberry. Here are some of the notable and of course the ridiculous ones: 1. Samsung 2. Lenovo 3. Microsoft - used more times than the hottest chick on the block 4. Apple 5. FairFax - something about taking it private? I'm sure there are many honorable mentions out there spanning from Siemens to Sony to whatever the idiots out there can think of. The truth is that there is a group of jerks out there hellbent on pumping this stock for their own benefit. The rumor mill club on wall street is as annoying as an itch on your back. You will never be able to find them but I hope someday, someone will find these jerks and give them a good b*tchslapping. But let's go to the more important point here. How many times has this stock given the poor value investors an exit???? Except for the people who bought this stock below $9, most of the investors out there are deeply underwater. Yet, it is funny that most investors still fall into this trap. They are convinced that it is a nice takeover play. They are convinced that it is a nice recovery play. They are convinced all sorts of things. The one good trait that makes us great as human beings - optimistic, is also our own downfall in investing. You cannot use HOPE in investments. I'm sure a lot of people will argue with me on that. Of course with the central banks pumping unprecedented liquidity, the investors in the last 7 years feel like they're never wrong. But that's not my point here. Out of thousands of good stocks out there, why do people still fall for the BlackBerry trap? Is it the valuation? Is it the hope that it will someday return to $100 or $148 at the peak of its time? I have been chastised, hated and insulted by a ton of people both online and in the public about my views of BlackBerry. But here I am, 5 years later, and has anything changed? BlackBerry has gotten cheaper. Its products no longer appeal to the public. True, businesses still like them and it's also true that their cash base is strong. It is also true that they have a whole host of patents apparently worth billions. Did you all also remember the NORTEL argument back in the day about its treasure trove of patents? Who won in the end? Certainly not investors. The best part about today's rumor is that MSFT offered $16 for BBRY. 4 years ago, MSFT offered to buy them at $26 and of course, the idiot CEO and board vehemently rejected the offer. Call it pride, call it stupidity or call it overconfidence but that was their last great chance at selling the company. I do not know if any more rumors are true in the future. I frankly do not care. But since 2009, I have shorted every rumor, faded every stupid pump on BBRY and have made money. I sit currently at 100% accuracy at fading rumors on BBRY. So I will not stop until I am proven wrong. Besides, I have made over $500,000 shorting BBRY rumors since 2009. So If I lose a few thousand dollars on the one rumor that turns out to be true, I still have a pretty good track record. So those of you who are in BlackBerry, some serious advice, take this chance to get out. Save some money and buy Apple or something good. Don't be an idiot, don't join the stupid group of BlackBerry investors trapped in their pit of desperation and hope. by Gavin M.
Maybe the markets are hopeful. Maybe the economic problems of the world are saved. Maybe it's you. Maybe it's me. Maybe it's Maybelline. Have you gone out of your mind yet trying to figure out why these markets go up or down almost on a daily basis? Or better yet, the bear's dilemma: "Why are these markets up when every data point is so bad?" I have had to really change my way of thinking these last 6 years. It has not been easy but I had to do it. I have had to accept that in this market - it's all about skewing the data to fit whatever rhetoric the big boys have. I can cite so many examples this week wherein trades did not go as expected. The RBA cut rates but the currency rallied anyway. The UK re-elected the Tories and sterling rallied. The US Jobs # was less than expected but high enough to keep everyone happy so we pushed higher. I don't even want to mention the leaks this week. I mean I saw so many leaks it would make BP's Macondo incident look like child's play. But alas, this is the market we are in. Manipulation is the name of the game and exploitation is rampant. If you are not on the right side of the trade, you lose. By right side, I mean you should be on the BTFD side of the trade. It really has been the case over the last 6 years. If you didn't buy the dips, you didn't make the bulk of your profits. The best part of this week was Yellen's warning about the markets being overvalued. When you have the head of the world's biggest central bank warning you of insane valuations and you investors push the markets higher - you know it is all over. It is this counter intuitive mentality we have in these markets that make any day trader just throw in the towel. Each day you are confronted with the dilemma of whether good news is good news or bad news or whatever the heck they decide to do that day. It really is that way. It can take a toll on some traders who dare seek out the truth rather than be a drone and BTFD each time it happens. For most though, the BTFD method works well and they continue to be rewarded so far. For practicality's sake, I would expect them to keep doing that until the status quo changes. At this point the powers that be want people to think there are no risks to investing at these highs and that you should continue to buy some more. I find it the funniest because even Chinese regulators are trying to cool their super hot stock markets. Yet what do the markets in China and US do? They rise higher. When you have talking heads on CNBS even saying the markets can and will push higher, it really is an amazing time to be a trader. In the end, despite what you may think or want, you just have to roll with what these markets are giving you. If they want to ramp, just trade it. If they want to fall, trade it that way too. Find what makes you happy and profitable and keep doing that until it won't work anymore. Happy Weekend! |
Multiple AuthorsTraders from Equity Sense will be writing on this blog on positions and other market-related things. Archives
May 2018
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